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3/08/2006

Charlie Cook on the odds that Democrats will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives

"[F]or Democrats to have any shot of taking back control of the House, they need to expand the narrow playing field of obviously vulnerable Republican seats, perhaps putting as many as 50 GOP seats in play. Of the 86 Republican-held districts that we consider to be the most potentially vulnerable, based on the district's Partisan Voting Index, there are 37 where Democrats have a candidate who meets at least a minimum standard of credibility. Still, we consider just 17 to be top-caliber challengers... Even though the political environment suggests Democrats should have little trouble lining up top candidates, the fact that Democrats have lost seats in the last two election cycles has certainly diminished the optimism of some ambitious candidates. Plus, many state parties have essentially abandoned any effort to build a farm team of up-and-coming candidates... [I]t is likely Democrats will pick up seats, but won't have enough top-tier candidates in vulnerable GOP districts to get the 15 they need to win the majority" -- Charlie Cook, publisher of the Cook Political Report, writing at NationalJournal.com.


Thanks to the OpinionJournal's Political Diary for spotting this quote.

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