Professor David Mayer provides a response to this letter here.

                            Columbus Dispatch (Ohio)

                   June 7, 2003 Saturday, Home Final Edition

SECTION: EDITORIAL & COMMENT; Letters To The Editor; Pg. 09A

LENGTH: 363 words

HEADLINE: STATISTICS SHOW CONCEALED CARRY WON'T REDUCE CRIME

BODY:
   Supporters of Ohio's proposed concealed-handgun law, armed with research from economist John Lott, say the measure will reduce violent crime. Lott argued as much in an April 24 column in The Dispatch that said a 20 percent decrease in gun homicides could result from such a law.

   Lott's claims, however, have not withstood careful scrutiny. As demonstrated in my paper, "Shooting Down the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis," co-authored with Yale Professor Ian Ayres and published in the current issue of Stanford Law Review , Lott's findings result from fatally flawed analysis. In fact, when we analyzed Lott's data after correcting his errors, we discovered that the most likely result of a permissive concealed-carry law in Ohio (and most other states) is a statistically significant increase in crime, not the decrease Lott claims.

   Trying to revive his discredited thesis, Lott now cites the work of others rather than his own research. But neither of the studies he refers to, one of which was written by his own co-author, David Mustard, actually supports Lott's view. Mustard's work follows the same flawed methodology that Lott employs, and the author of the other paper (as Lott well knows) has withdrawn the paper after concluding that the data on which it (and Lott's work) was based is unreliable.

   Lott suggests that after a concealed-carry law passes, people will wonder what all the fuss was about. At a time when crime, accidental deaths and suicides are declining, people will not be able to perceive how much worse things are because of the adoption of these laws. If total gun deaths would have dropped by 2 percent without the adoption of the law but instead only fell by 1 percent because the law passed, there will be no fuss about the added victims of gun violence caused by the adoption of the law.

   Legislators may feel a modest increase in the number of dead Ohioans in exchange for the ability to carry hidden handguns is an acceptable trade-off. But don't believe anyone who says concealed carry laws will reduce crime. There is no credible support for that view.

   JOHN J. DONOHUE III

   Professor

   Stanford Law School

   Stanford, Calif.

LOAD-DATE: June 7, 2003