Is Romney the Weakest of the Possibly Republican Nominees?
If you believe the averages at Real Clear Politics, Romney is the weakest possible nominee. Giuliani, Huckabee, and Thompson are virtually the same. One thing that I will say for Thompson is that given he has gotten much less favorable publicity than Giuliani or Huckabee (particularly Huckabee), he might do relatively better than them farther down the road.
Average difference in races between Clinton or Obama and Republican
McCain . . . . +3 Percent
Giuliani . . . . -8.8 percent
Huckabee . . -9.3 percent
Thompson . . -9.75 percent
Romney . . . . -13.9 percent
Between Clinton and Obama it isn't even close. Obama is a much stronger candidate than Hillary. I haven't figured out the average difference but it looks like about 7 percent on average. Plus every Republican would apparently lose to Obama. One warning with all these numbers is that the general election is a long ways away, but these are big differences.
Average difference in races between Clinton or Obama and Republican
McCain . . . . +3 Percent
Giuliani . . . . -8.8 percent
Huckabee . . -9.3 percent
Thompson . . -9.75 percent
Romney . . . . -13.9 percent
Between Clinton and Obama it isn't even close. Obama is a much stronger candidate than Hillary. I haven't figured out the average difference but it looks like about 7 percent on average. Plus every Republican would apparently lose to Obama. One warning with all these numbers is that the general election is a long ways away, but these are big differences.
Labels: 2008PresidentialRace, FredThompson, Giuliani, HillaryClinton, Huckabee, Obama
posted by John Lott at 3:38 AM
4 Comments:
I keep thinking that the only way Obama will win is if he can somehow convince people that he's a lot more conservative than he actually is--but I fear that he will succeed in fooling enough people to do that very thing.
Ultimately, though, I think he's going to tank when he starts getting nailed on policy specifics.
The other caveat is that these are national poll numbers and we don't have a national election. We have separate elections in each state, so it doesn't matter whether a candidate carries NY or CA by 5 votes or 5 million votes. Only when we start to see state polls will the results really begin to show something.
These polls and all the data coming in over a period of 6 months or so tells a great deal. In the beginning, the media, blogs, etc ... thrived on feeding us information on what they thought the outcome would (or should) be. Now that the populous is actually taking part in the process, it just goes to show that perhaps the media is playing less and less of a role in feeding the masses what they think is the right information. This is good news.
-Scott Davis
-http://www.ScottDavis.info
Just how reliable is Real Clear Politics? If it is reliable, then it looks like conservatives have to swallow hard and support McCain instead of the best candidate just to make sure conservatives retain the presidency and all that entails.
Conservatives will have to go to therapy en masse!
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