The closest congressional elections in 50 years

If you were wondering whether your vote counted this election, read this statement by John Fund:

As of now, Congressional Quarterly has Democrats favored to win 210 of the 218 seats they need to wrest the gavel from Speaker Denny Hastert. Republicans are ahead in 207 seats. A total of 18 seats are in the tossup category. That means Republicans would have to win 11 of the 18 seats without a current clear favorite -- or 60% -- to keep their majority.

In the Senate, the contest is equally close. Republicans are favored to hold 49 seats after November 7; Democrats are predicted to hold 48. Three seats are tossups -- the Missouri seat of Republican Jim Talent, the New Jersey seat of Democrat Bob Menendez, and the open Tennessee seat fought over by Republican Bob Corker and Democrat Harold Ford Jr.

To translate, if the Republicans and Democrats divide the 18 seats where the polls show them tied, the Democrats will win the House by three seats. Three seats where the margin of victory is likely to be very tight. I would also add that the trend seems to be slowly going in the Republican direction so this might even get closer before the end.


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