Going out on a limb: Predicting Tuesday's results

Here are my election predictions. The Republicans are going to keep the House and the Senate. My guess is that the Republicans will lose 12 seats in the House and no more than 1 in the Senate. I would not be surprised that Republicans break even or even pick up one seat in the Senate. I think that Republicans will lose Ohio, but could pick up Michigan and even more likely Maryland. A Steele in Maryland win will make the evening a great one all by itself.

UPDATE: Well, I was wrong. It isn't much solace that there were a lot of very close races (e.g., the Senate races in Montana, Missouri, and Virginia). Just a switch of a few tenths of a percentage point in those three races would have meant a Republican loss of three seats. According to Sean Hannity, eighteen of the House seats were decided by less than 5,000 votes. Four or five were decided by less than a thousand votes. Well, in any case, I was wrong.


Blogger Don Worsham said...

I pray your prediction comes true.

11/07/2006 8:26 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A Steele victory in the Democratic Peoples Republic of Maryland would be well deserved.

IMHO he is one of the sharpest candidates on the scene.


11/07/2006 10:09 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Stellar forecast, John.

hey Dan Worsham...I guess God hates you.

11/08/2006 1:36 AM  
Blogger John Lott said...

Dear second Anonymous:

Well, I was wrong. Does your last comment mean that God hated you for the last 12 years? Pretty silly. I am not sure who Dan Worsham is.

11/08/2006 1:50 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I meant don worsham, not dan. (I can see how you would've gotten confused.)

Whomever he is, he's the cat above that prayed to God that your awesome predictions would come true.

Guess what? God hates don worsham.

And no, God doesn't hate me because I don't beg Him to help me with something as sleazy as politics.

Perhaps you guys should try that sometime. Might help you govern better.

11/08/2006 3:01 AM  
Blogger John Lott said...

Thanks for the clarification. Now that I understand your comments a little better, I am not sure that your comments make much sense. 1) I think that you take worsham's comments too literally. In addition, I don't think that he was praying for God to change people's votes. 2) In any case, I don't see how your last paragraph follows.

11/08/2006 3:17 AM  
Anonymous llewelly said...

That's really too bad, Lott. I guess you should buy more guns next time ...

11/09/2006 2:55 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are an idot Lott. I hope the election means that they take away all American guns.

11/20/2006 12:24 AM  

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